武装冲突从来都不是直来直去的。 武器不是力量。 民族认同很重要。
作者：菲利普斯·佩森·奥布莱恩 (Phillips Payson O’Brien)
尽管俄罗斯在乌克兰发动的可怕战争的后果将在数十年内逐渐显现，但从这场冲突中吸取的三个教训已经很清楚了,而且，回想起来，应该一直都是显而易见的。 一年前的今天，当入侵开始时，外界的大部分评论都集中在俄罗斯的优势上。 人们普遍认为，弗拉基米尔·普京总统的军队拥有压倒性的空中力量和火力、快速移动的地面部队和广泛的网络战能力,所有这些据说都意味着俄罗斯将迅速征服其邻国。 它声称的力量似乎如此强大，以至于当俄罗斯军队刚刚越过边界时，一些分析人士都在思考哪位亲莫斯科的乌克兰政客可能会领导基辅的傀儡政权。
然而，过去 12 个月的第一个教训是，战争绝非易事或直来直去的——这就是为什么发动战争对任何国家来说几乎总是错误的决定。 美国有时让战争看起来很简单，最明显的是 1991 年，当时沙漠风暴行动在一个半月内将伊拉克军队赶出了科威特。 然而，只有在美国进行了长达十年的军事建设并部署了世界上最先进的军事技术之后，才有可能取得这一胜利。 即使在那时，海湾战争的一个决定性特征是美国并没有试图占领另一个社会。 当向巴格达进军的机会出现时，乔治·H·W·布什总统的政府却退缩了。
在此后的三十年里，尽管美国拥有世界上最大的经济体和最强大的武装力量，但事实证明，美国通常无法将其主导地位转化为快速的胜利，而最终陷入旷日持久的冲突，充其量只是结果喜忧参半。 战争开始容易，结束难。没有人真正知道军队、技术和经济资源在激烈的战斗中会如何表现。 计划失败，混乱笼罩，军事优势变成僵持时期。
过去一年在乌克兰发生的战争比沙漠风暴更为典型。俄罗斯的压倒性力量不过是； 俄罗斯没有向乌克兰人发动现代战争，而是依靠陈旧的武器和指挥结构。 俄罗斯军队没有在几周内占领基辅，而是经历了重大的系统故障。 从那以后，俄罗斯的问题似乎变得更糟了。 普京换帅如换袜子，装备质量下降，伤亡人数暴增。 现在，俄罗斯和乌克兰军队在长长的血淋淋的战壕中对峙，普京几乎没有希望按照他的意愿结束战争。
尽管冲突中的一方几乎从来不会简单地压倒另一方，但对于像俄罗斯这样存在严重缺陷的大国来说，失败的风险尤其高。 当前战争的第二个教训是，军事力量不是国家力量的基础，而是塑造国家武装力量的经济、技术、政治和社会因素的产物。 俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵有时被描述为大国对抗小国。 在西方政策圈，俄罗斯专家的主导地位——他们中的许多人在其职业生涯中一直将俄罗斯视为地区霸主，而其邻国主要是后苏联国家，促成了这种事件框架。
俄罗斯无疑是一个核大国，但从几乎所有其他标准来看，它都远远落后于其声誉。 俄罗斯经济存在严重缺陷。 其国内生产总值在世界上排名第十，不到美国的十分之一。 俄罗斯的大部分财富是通过资源开采创造的，因此很少生产高科技产品，实际上几乎没有其他具有任何实际价值的产品。 在社会方面，人口正在萎缩且预期寿命相对较低的俄罗斯表现出极大的痛苦迹象。 在政治上，它在一个独裁者的统治下已经僵化，独裁者通过容忍接近王位的人的腐败来巩固他对国家的控制。
换句话说，今天的俄罗斯军队是盗贼统治没落的产物，而不是大国的产物。
通过忽视俄罗斯的系统性弱点，西方分析家帮助制造了民主国家今天所处的混乱局面。 基于武器数量的假设认为乌克兰太弱，无法在公开战斗中抵抗俄罗斯，因此推迟了向陷入困境的国家提供大量军事援助。 这是一个有悖常理的循环论证：因为俄罗斯强大而乌克兰弱小，我们应该停止向乌克兰提供援助。
幸运的是，事实证明这种说法是站不住脚的。 这场战争以及 1945 年以来的许多其他战争的第三个教训是，低估民族认同的重要性会导致军事灾难。 按照传统标准，乌克兰相对于今天的俄罗斯比 1980 年代阿富汗相对于苏联以及 1960 年代北越相对于美国要强大得多。 两个冷战超级大国都因试图用武力镇压当地抵抗力量而感到羞愧，都不得不撤军。
然而，在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的前期和去年的大部分时间里，西方许多人未能意识到乌克兰人对他们的独立和民主的重视程度。 一些关注俄罗斯的学者似乎已经接受了莫斯科的观点，认为乌克兰是一个软弱的、人为的实体，缺乏广泛的民众支持。 北约支持基辅的怀疑论者主要关注乌克兰的腐败（同时忽视了腐败对俄罗斯权力的影响）。
这样的判断和质疑现在看来是愚蠢的。 乌克兰人的身份从一开始就是坚强而坚决的。 许多分析家忽视了民主国家，即使是不完美的民主国家，相对于独裁国家的军事优势。 尽管前者在受到威胁时经常显得混乱和分裂，但他们可以更强有力、更灵活、更聪明地做出反应，部分原因是他们的公民感到有能力在战斗环境发生变化时即兴发挥和表现出主动性。 这种模式在乌克兰也适用。 尽管最初拥有的先进武器较少，但乌克兰进行了顽强的反击，给俄罗斯造成了深远的影响，据估计，俄罗斯已经损失了战争开始时拥有的一半主战坦克。
结果如此明显，以至于之前淡化乌克兰机会的某些评论员似乎改变了主意。 前国务卿亨利·基辛格一直主张美国应该在西方和俄罗斯之间保持中立，他去年坚持要求基辅做出领土让步。 但今年早些时候，他表示支持乌克兰加入北约。
过去一年的三个教训：战争从来不是直来直去的； 权力不基于武器； 民族认同具有军事价值，这应该让民主支持者松一口气。
Phillips Payson O’Brien 是苏格兰圣安德鲁斯大学战略研究教授。 他是《战争是如何获胜的：空海力量和盟军在第二次世界大战中的胜利》一书的作者。
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Роман Викторович Василенко – биография бизнесмена
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Биография
Мнение
Роман Василенко – известный предприниматель и меценат. Бывший офицер, ушедший в запас с сохранением права ношения военной формы. Создатель альтернативной ипотеке социальной жилищной программы, позволяющей приобрести жилье не только трудоспособным гражданам, но также молодежи, лицам с ограниченными физическими возможностями, пенсионерам.
Биография
Родился 5 апреля 1969 года в Ленинграде, в семье морских офицеров. Детство Романа Василенко прошло в стандартных для многих военных семей условиях – в разъездах. Окончил школу в гарнизоне на Дальнем Востоке, после чего поступил в Ярославское высшее военное финансовое училище. Этот факт говорит о целеустремленности будущего бизнесмена – к абитуриентам военных училищ всегда предъявляются жесткие требования при отборе.
После присвоения воинского звания в 1990 году Роман Василенко продолжил службу офицером в ВМФ. Уволился в запас в 1998 году в звании капитана третьего ранга (майор).
Первые годы в бизнесе
Еще во время службы в армии Роман Василенко начал задумываться о предпринимательской деятельности. После увольнения он работал в финансово-консалтинговых компаниях, при этом активно учился – посещал все доступные на тот момент бизнес-курсы: в Венгрии, Австрии, США, Швейцарии, на Маврикии и Кипре. Степень MBA получил во Франции. Суммарно в финансовом консалтинге бизнесмен проработал около 16 лет.
Все это время Роман Василенко, по отзывам знавших его людей, стремился к чему-то большему. Он мечтал не просто об известности и собственном, хорошо отлаженном бизнесе. Ему хотелось создать проект, который будет полезен людям и обществу.
Первый шаг оказался неудачным. В 2013 году он, вместе с партнером, создал собственную компанию. Благодаря его безупречной репутации и умению держать слово, дела резко пошли вверх. Но произошло то, что часто случается при излишней доверчивости – воспользовавшись удобным случаем, компаньон переоформил все документы на себя, оставив Романа Викторовича буквально ни с чем. Бизнесмен решил принять ситуацию как ценный опыт и продолжил интересоваться инвестированием.
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Роман Василенко – жилищный кооператив как альтернатива ипотеке
Наиболее предпочтительным вариантом оказалось объединение опыта в сетевом маркетинге и жилищного вопроса, к чему немедленно и приступил Роман Василенко. Best Way был создан в 2014 году. С момента основания принципиальной позицией работы компании стала прозрачность и абсолютная доступность информации для обычных пользователей.
Как говорит сам Роман Василенко, участие в кооперативе можно рассматривать как покупку квартиры в складчину. Пайщик вносит 35% от стоимости квартиры, оставшуюся сумму 65% платит кооператив из собранных средств. Участник выплачивает долг беспроцентно в течение 10 лет, после чего жилье переходит в его собственность. При этом у него есть право прописаться и въехать в купленную квартиру сразу же после оформления сделки купли-продажи.
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Carrie Underwood slated to perform at Trump’s inauguration
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Country music star Carrie Underwood is slated to perform “America the Beautiful” at President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, according to a copy of the program obtained by CNN and confirmed by a spokesperson for the inaugural committee.
“I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”
The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.
Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.
Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.
In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.
The Grammy-winning artist is as high-profile as you can get in country music, not only with numerous platinum hits, but also with public-facing, mainstream business associations. Underwood is the face of Sunday Night Football and is set to make her debut this March as a judge on ABC’s “American Idol” – the singing competition show that catapulted her to fame when she won in 2005.
While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.
Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.
Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.
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Tbilisi, Georgia — Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike has reached three weeks in Rustavi, a town near the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, her lawyer says. Now the 49-year-old is having difficulty walking the short distance from her cell to the room where they usually meet, and human rights officials, colleagues and family fear for her life.
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Amaghlobeli was arrested Jan. 12 during an anti-government protest in the coastal city of Batumi, one of over 40 people in custody on criminal charges from a series of demonstrations that have hit the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million in recent months.
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The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.
Protests highlight battle over Georgia’s future. Here’s why it matters.
Its outcome pushed Georgia further into Russia’s orbit of influence. Georgia aspired to join the European Union, but the party suspended accession talks with the bloc after the election.
As it sought to cement its grip on power, Georgian Dream has cracked down on freedom of assembly and expression in what the opposition says is similar to President Vladimir Putin’s actions in neighboring Russia, its former imperial ruler.
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Tbilisi, Georgia — Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike has reached three weeks in Rustavi, a town near the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, her lawyer says. Now the 49-year-old is having difficulty walking the short distance from her cell to the room where they usually meet, and human rights officials, colleagues and family fear for her life.
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Amaghlobeli was arrested Jan. 12 during an anti-government protest in the coastal city of Batumi, one of over 40 people in custody on criminal charges from a series of demonstrations that have hit the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million in recent months.
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The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.
Protests highlight battle over Georgia’s future. Here’s why it matters.
Its outcome pushed Georgia further into Russia’s orbit of influence. Georgia aspired to join the European Union, but the party suspended accession talks with the bloc after the election.
As it sought to cement its grip on power, Georgian Dream has cracked down on freedom of assembly and expression in what the opposition says is similar to President Vladimir Putin’s actions in neighboring Russia, its former imperial ruler.
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Thieves have stolen four ancient artifacts, including an approximately 2,500-year-old gold helmet, after using explosives to break into a museum in the Netherlands.
The daring heist took place at Drents Museum in Assen during the early hours of Saturday morning, according to Dutch police, who said they received a report of an explosion at 3:45 a.m. local time.
CCTV footage released by police shows the suspects opening an exterior door before a blast sends sparks and smoke into the air. The thieves made off with three gold bracelets, dating from around 50 BC, as well as the 5th-century BC Helmet of Cotofenesti, a historically important artifact on loan from the National History Museum of Romania in Bucharest.
The items were part of an exhibition about the Dacians, an ancient society that occupied much of present-day Romania before being conquered by the Romans. On show since July, “Dacia: Empire of Gold and Silver” featured treasures borrowed from institutions across Romania.
In a press release on its website, Drents Museum described the Helmet of Cotofenesti — which was discovered in a Romanian village almost a century ago — as a “masterpiece.” Its design features mythological scenes and a pair of eyes, located above the wearers’, that were thought to deter enemies during battle while protecting against the “evil eye.”
The exhibition was set to conclude Sunday, though Drents Museum remained closed through the weekend due to the robbery. Its premises were damaged by the explosion, though no injuries were reported, the museum said.
Dutch police announced that they are working with global police agency Interpol and had, as of Sunday, received more than 50 tip-offs. Investigators are currently looking for information about a gray car that was stolen from the nearby city of Alkmaar earlier in the week and was discovered around four miles from the crime scene, on fire, shortly after the overnight heist.
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