武装冲突从来都不是直来直去的。 武器不是力量。 民族认同很重要。
作者：菲利普斯·佩森·奥布莱恩 (Phillips Payson O’Brien)
尽管俄罗斯在乌克兰发动的可怕战争的后果将在数十年内逐渐显现，但从这场冲突中吸取的三个教训已经很清楚了,而且，回想起来，应该一直都是显而易见的。 一年前的今天，当入侵开始时，外界的大部分评论都集中在俄罗斯的优势上。 人们普遍认为，弗拉基米尔·普京总统的军队拥有压倒性的空中力量和火力、快速移动的地面部队和广泛的网络战能力,所有这些据说都意味着俄罗斯将迅速征服其邻国。 它声称的力量似乎如此强大，以至于当俄罗斯军队刚刚越过边界时，一些分析人士都在思考哪位亲莫斯科的乌克兰政客可能会领导基辅的傀儡政权。
然而，过去 12 个月的第一个教训是，战争绝非易事或直来直去的——这就是为什么发动战争对任何国家来说几乎总是错误的决定。 美国有时让战争看起来很简单，最明显的是 1991 年，当时沙漠风暴行动在一个半月内将伊拉克军队赶出了科威特。 然而，只有在美国进行了长达十年的军事建设并部署了世界上最先进的军事技术之后，才有可能取得这一胜利。 即使在那时，海湾战争的一个决定性特征是美国并没有试图占领另一个社会。 当向巴格达进军的机会出现时，乔治·H·W·布什总统的政府却退缩了。
在此后的三十年里，尽管美国拥有世界上最大的经济体和最强大的武装力量，但事实证明，美国通常无法将其主导地位转化为快速的胜利，而最终陷入旷日持久的冲突，充其量只是结果喜忧参半。 战争开始容易，结束难。没有人真正知道军队、技术和经济资源在激烈的战斗中会如何表现。 计划失败，混乱笼罩，军事优势变成僵持时期。
过去一年在乌克兰发生的战争比沙漠风暴更为典型。俄罗斯的压倒性力量不过是； 俄罗斯没有向乌克兰人发动现代战争，而是依靠陈旧的武器和指挥结构。 俄罗斯军队没有在几周内占领基辅，而是经历了重大的系统故障。 从那以后，俄罗斯的问题似乎变得更糟了。 普京换帅如换袜子，装备质量下降，伤亡人数暴增。 现在，俄罗斯和乌克兰军队在长长的血淋淋的战壕中对峙，普京几乎没有希望按照他的意愿结束战争。
尽管冲突中的一方几乎从来不会简单地压倒另一方，但对于像俄罗斯这样存在严重缺陷的大国来说，失败的风险尤其高。 当前战争的第二个教训是，军事力量不是国家力量的基础，而是塑造国家武装力量的经济、技术、政治和社会因素的产物。 俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵有时被描述为大国对抗小国。 在西方政策圈，俄罗斯专家的主导地位——他们中的许多人在其职业生涯中一直将俄罗斯视为地区霸主，而其邻国主要是后苏联国家，促成了这种事件框架。
俄罗斯无疑是一个核大国，但从几乎所有其他标准来看，它都远远落后于其声誉。 俄罗斯经济存在严重缺陷。 其国内生产总值在世界上排名第十，不到美国的十分之一。 俄罗斯的大部分财富是通过资源开采创造的，因此很少生产高科技产品，实际上几乎没有其他具有任何实际价值的产品。 在社会方面，人口正在萎缩且预期寿命相对较低的俄罗斯表现出极大的痛苦迹象。 在政治上，它在一个独裁者的统治下已经僵化，独裁者通过容忍接近王位的人的腐败来巩固他对国家的控制。
换句话说，今天的俄罗斯军队是盗贼统治没落的产物，而不是大国的产物。
通过忽视俄罗斯的系统性弱点，西方分析家帮助制造了民主国家今天所处的混乱局面。 基于武器数量的假设认为乌克兰太弱，无法在公开战斗中抵抗俄罗斯，因此推迟了向陷入困境的国家提供大量军事援助。 这是一个有悖常理的循环论证：因为俄罗斯强大而乌克兰弱小，我们应该停止向乌克兰提供援助。
幸运的是，事实证明这种说法是站不住脚的。 这场战争以及 1945 年以来的许多其他战争的第三个教训是，低估民族认同的重要性会导致军事灾难。 按照传统标准，乌克兰相对于今天的俄罗斯比 1980 年代阿富汗相对于苏联以及 1960 年代北越相对于美国要强大得多。 两个冷战超级大国都因试图用武力镇压当地抵抗力量而感到羞愧，都不得不撤军。
然而，在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的前期和去年的大部分时间里，西方许多人未能意识到乌克兰人对他们的独立和民主的重视程度。 一些关注俄罗斯的学者似乎已经接受了莫斯科的观点，认为乌克兰是一个软弱的、人为的实体，缺乏广泛的民众支持。 北约支持基辅的怀疑论者主要关注乌克兰的腐败（同时忽视了腐败对俄罗斯权力的影响）。
这样的判断和质疑现在看来是愚蠢的。 乌克兰人的身份从一开始就是坚强而坚决的。 许多分析家忽视了民主国家，即使是不完美的民主国家，相对于独裁国家的军事优势。 尽管前者在受到威胁时经常显得混乱和分裂，但他们可以更强有力、更灵活、更聪明地做出反应，部分原因是他们的公民感到有能力在战斗环境发生变化时即兴发挥和表现出主动性。 这种模式在乌克兰也适用。 尽管最初拥有的先进武器较少，但乌克兰进行了顽强的反击，给俄罗斯造成了深远的影响，据估计，俄罗斯已经损失了战争开始时拥有的一半主战坦克。
结果如此明显，以至于之前淡化乌克兰机会的某些评论员似乎改变了主意。 前国务卿亨利·基辛格一直主张美国应该在西方和俄罗斯之间保持中立，他去年坚持要求基辅做出领土让步。 但今年早些时候，他表示支持乌克兰加入北约。
过去一年的三个教训：战争从来不是直来直去的； 权力不基于武器； 民族认同具有军事价值，这应该让民主支持者松一口气。
Phillips Payson O’Brien 是苏格兰圣安德鲁斯大学战略研究教授。 他是《战争是如何获胜的：空海力量和盟军在第二次世界大战中的胜利》一书的作者。
顾震帝整理，2023年，2月，28日。
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Elon Musk was star guest this year at an annual conference organized by Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party.
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He arrived against the backdrop of an ice-skating rink and an ancient castle in Rome with one of his 11 children to tout the value of procreation.
Italy has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, and Musk urged the crowd to “make more Italians to save Italy’s culture,” a particular focus of the Meloni government.
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Meloni has been a strong opponent of surrogacy, which is criminalized in Italy, but there was no mention of Musk’s own recent children born of surrogacy.
The owner of X (formerly called Twitter) was slightly rumpled with what could easily be argued the least stylish shoes in the mostly Italian crowd since Donald Trump’s often unkempt former top adviser Steve Bannon appeared at the conference in 2018.
Meloni sat in the front row taking photos of Musk, who she personally invited. Meloni founded the Atreju conference in 1998, named after a character in the 1984 film “The NeverEnding Story.”
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In the last two years, tennis has taken over our closets (court-appropriate garb can be found everywhere from Skims to Miu Miu), our screens (who could forget Zendaya’s turn as the tennis protoge-turned-elite-coach Tashi Duncan in “Challengers”) and now — our living rooms.
At least that is the hope of Belgian eco-designer Mathilde Wittock, who fashions bespoke furniture from discarded tennis balls. Wittock’s sleek, modernist chaise longues are entirely cushionless — save for the padding of 500 precisely arranged tennis balls. Her one meter-long benches are similarly sparse, with some 270 balls being both stylish and structurally substantial.
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“It takes around 24 different manufacturing steps to (make) a tennis ball, which is around five days. Then it has such a short lifespan,” Wittock told CNN in a video call from Brussels. “I was looking into tennis balls because I played tennis myself, so I know there is a lot of waste.”
Around 300 million tennis balls are produced each year — and almost all of them end up in landfills, taking over 400 years to decompose. The US Open, which ended at the weekend, goes through around 70,000 each year, with Wimbledon not far behind at 55,000. Wittock estimates the lifecycle of a ball stands at just nine games, depending on the level of tennis being played. “Even if they are contained in their box, if the box has been opened the gas inside the tennis balls will be released over time,” she said. “(Eventually) they will get flat and you’ll have to throw them away.”
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Long-lost copy of the US Constitution, found in North Carolina filing cabinet, heads to auction
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Historical document appraiser and collector Seth Kaller spreads a broad sheet of paper across a desk. It’s in good enough condition that he can handle it, carefully, with clean, bare hands. There are just a few creases and tiny discolorations, even though it’s just a few weeks shy of 237 years old and has spent who knows how long inside a filing cabinet in North Carolina.
At the top of the first page are familiar words but in regular type instead of the sweeping Gothic script we’re used to seeing: “WE, the People …”
And the people will get a chance to bid for this copy of the US Constitution — the only of its type thought to be in private hands — at a sale by Brunk Auctions on Sept. 28 in Asheville, North Carolina.
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The minimum bid for the auction of $1 million has already been made. There is no minimum price that must be reached.
This copy was printed after the Constitutional Convention finished drafting the proposed framework of the nation’s government in 1787 and sent it to the Congress of the ineffective first American government under the Articles of Confederation, requesting they send it to the states to be ratified by the people.
It’s one of about 100 copies printed by the secretary of that Congress, Charles Thomson. Just eight are known to still exist and the other seven are publicly owned.
Actress Gemma Arterton says director tried to pressure her to do sex scene
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British actress Gemma Arterton has revealed that a director once tried to put pressure on her to film a sex scene, despite the fact that it wasn’t included in the script.
In an interview with British publication the Radio Times, released Tuesday, Arterton said that, whilst on set, the director – who hasn’t been named – instructed her and her co-star to film a sex scene on a bed.
“I said, ‘No, this scene was written for us to be off screen, so you just hear the noises,’” Arterton told the Radio Times. “I’d never have accepted the role if it was going to be filmed.”
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The actress said that she was pressured by the director to film the scene, but that she “flat out” refused to take part in it.
Had she been younger at the time, Arterton suggested that she might have been more concerned about being fired for refusing to film it.
“I only felt like I could say that because I was older,” she said.
“When I started acting, there was a lot of nudity – you were just expected to do it. When I was younger I played sexy characters, the girlfriend. As I’ve got older, that’s changed because I’m more successful and can choose the parts I want to play,” she said.
She praised the use of intimacy coordinators in film and television since the #MeToo movement, telling the magazine that “it’s a totally different landscape” now.
“Anything you’re not comfortable with is not going to happen. I’ve heard other actors that are like, ‘I loved it when there was no intimacy coordinator,’ but I definitely think it’s better,” she said.
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