美国总统对乌克兰的访问对俄罗斯领导人来说是一个沉重的打击。
作者： 艾略特·A·科恩 (Eliot A. Cohen)
美国东部时间 2023 年 2 月 20 日上午 10:29。
远程导弹很重要。 超精确炮弹、地对空导弹和冬季气象装备也是如此； 在英国乡村或泥泞的 Grafenwöhr 演习场进行的训练； 以及从太空中的眼睛和在战区外盘旋飞机上提供的情报。
但乔·拜登总统对基辅的访问与其中任何一项都一样重要。
其他政府首脑在拜登之前，赢得了应得的荣誉。 但当美国总统——实际上是自由世界的领袖——出现时，情况就完全不同了。 他的话很重要。 他承诺“我们将坚定不移地致力于乌克兰的民主、主权和领土完整。” 更重要的是，称美国将“在需要的时候”与乌克兰站在一起。
形象很重要：柏林墙前的肯尼迪或里根，抽着雪茄和圆顶礼帽的丘吉尔，而今，身着绿衣的泽伦斯基大声地说：“我需要弹药，而不是搭便车。” 仅仅通过危险的基辅之行，拜登就采取了一项至关重要的战略举措。
虽然总统显然打算增强乌克兰的信心，以及矛盾的欧洲人和新孤立主义美国人的承诺，但正如他对西方力量的评论所表明的那样，他真正的听众在别处。 俄罗斯散播了一系列关于在乌克兰取得胜利的理论——基辅的领导人会逃跑，乌克兰人民不会战斗，它的军队会被突然的闪电战或猛烈的攻击击垮。 它已沦为最后的希望：弗拉基米尔·普京的意志比乔·拜登的意志更强大。 拜登只是用行动和言语说，“哦，不，不是。”
但拜登的到访是对俄罗斯领导人的一击。 俄罗斯人收到了这次旅行的消息，我们被告知——可能是明示或暗示的威胁，如果他们试图干涉它，他们将得到暴力和压倒性的回应。 对于像普京这样痴迷于力量的领导人来说，这是一个打击。 他自己的人会悄悄或公开地问：“为什么我们不能阻止这一切？” 未明说的答案必须是，“因为我们害怕。”
一位戴着标志性飞行员太阳镜走在阳光明媚的基辅市中心的美国总统与好斗而雄辩的乌克兰总统以及一位尚未访问战区的俄罗斯总统之间的视觉对比也很引人注目。 更不用说与其他人打成一片、握手、拥抱和拍背的美国总统与与下属保持身体距离的俄罗斯总统之间的区别。 克里姆林宫的好战言论不会改变这些视觉图像，这些图像将在俄罗斯和世界各地看到。
这不是噱头，而是政治家的行为。 拜登的访问正值许多事情悬而未决之际。 按照美国政府的说法，中国人已经开始叫嚣要武装俄罗斯，这将是这场战争的一个非常大的变化。 包括亚洲民主国家在内的西方盟友已经开始动员他们的军事工业。 俄罗斯的攻势本应在入侵周年纪念日期间取得巨大收益，但结果却让顿巴斯铺满了数千名士兵的尸体，他们太晚才知道，正如一位第一次世界大战的法国将军所说的那样，“火灾致死”。 与此同时，乌克兰正在建立自己的反攻力量。
俄乌战争不仅是一场人道主义灾难，是危害人类罪的骇人听闻的集合，是对庄严协议和国际法的严重违反。 它也是一个分水岭，国际体系的未来将在很大程度上决定于此。 如果独裁者如愿以偿，它可能会导致一个非常黑暗的时代，与 1930 年代和 40 年代的黑暗无异。 但如果自由民主国家团结起来，展现出他们之前表现出的决心、进取心和军事能力，这种结果仍然可以避免。
为此，没有什么比美国的领导地位、恢复过去几十年被浪费或分散的声望和影响力更重要的了。 我们离这场战争的结束还差得很远，需要做很多有形的事情才能使冲突接近尾声。 言语和手势是关键的，但只有在伴随着行动的情况下。 但就目前而言，通过迈出大胆的一步，拜登总统已经让乌克兰、欧洲和法律下的自由事业的未来更加光明。
艾略特·科恩 (Eliot Cohen) 是《大西洋月刊》的特约撰稿人。 他是约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院的Robert E. Osgood 教授和战略与国际研究中心的Arleigh Burke 战略主席。
顾震帝整理，2023年，2月，21号。
Despite prepping’s reputation as a form of doomerism, many left-wing preppers say they are not devoid of hope.
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Shonkwiler believes there will be an opportunity to create something new in the aftermath of a crisis. “It begins with preparedness and it ends with a better world,” he said.
Some also say there’s less tension between left- and right-wing preppers than people might expect. Bounds, the sociology professor, said very conservative preppers she met during her research contacted her during the Covid-19 pandemic to offer help.
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There is a natural human solidarity that emerges amid disaster, Killjoy said. She recalls a cashier giving her a deep discount on supplies she was buying to take to Asheville post-Helene. “I have every reason to believe that that man is right-wing, and I do think that there is a transcending of political differences that happens in times of crisis,” she said.
As terrifying events pile up, from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to deadly extreme weather, it’s hard to escape the sense we live in a time of rolling existential crises — often a hair’s breadth from global disaster.
People are increasingly beginning to wonder whether their views on preppers have been misconceived, Mills said. “There is a bigger question floating in the air, which is: Are preppers crazy, or is everyone else?”
Killjoy has seen a huge change over the last five years in people’s openness to prepping. Those who used to make fun of her for her “go bag” are now asking for advice.
It’s not necessarily the start of a prepping boom, she said. “I think it is about more and more people adopting preparedness and prepper things into a normal life.”
Evidence already points this way. Americans stockpiled goods in advance of Trump’s tariffs and online sales of contraceptives skyrocketed in the wake of his election, amid concerns he would reduce access. Shows like “The Walking Dead,” meanwhile, have thrust the idea of prepping into popular culture and big box stores now sell prepping equipment and meal kits.
People are hungry to learn about preparedness, said Shonkwiler. “They have the understanding that the world as we knew it, and counted on it, is beginning to cease to be. … What we need to be doing now is figuring out how we can survive in the world that we’ve created.”
This company says its technology can help save the world. It’s now cutting 20% of its staff as Trump slashes climate funding
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Two huge plants in Iceland operate like giant vacuum cleaners, sucking in air and stripping out planet-heating carbon pollution. This much-hyped climate technology is called direct air capture, and the company behind these plants, Switzerland-based Climeworks, is perhaps its most high-profile proponent.
But a year after opening a huge new facility, Climeworks is straining against strong headwinds. The company announced this month it would lay off around 20% of its workforce, blaming economic uncertainties and shifting climate policy priorities.
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“We’ve always known this journey would be demanding. Today, we find ourselves navigating a challenging time,” Climeworks’ CEOs Christoph Gebald and Jan Wurzbacher said in a statement.
This is particularly true of its US ambitions. A new direct air capture plant planned for Louisiana, which received $50 million in funding from the Biden administration, hangs in the balance as President Donald Trump slashes climate funding.
Climeworks also faces mounting criticism for operating at only a fraction of its maximum capacity, and for failing to remove more climate pollution than it emits.
The company says these are teething pains inherent in setting up a new industry from scratch and that it has entered a new phase of global scale up. “The overall trajectory will be positive as we continue to define the technology,” said a Climeworks spokesperson.
For critics, however, these headwinds are evidence direct air capture is an expensive, shiny distraction from effective climate action.
Many left-wing preppers also have guns.
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Killjoy is open about the fact she owns firearms but calls it one of the least important aspects of her prepping. She lives in rural Appalachia and, as a transgender woman, says the way she’s treated has changed dramatically since Trump’s first election. For those on the left, guns are “for community and self-defense,” she said.
Left-wing preppers consistently say the biggest difference between them and their right-wing peers is the rejection of “bunker mentality” — the idea of filling a bunker with beans, rice, guns and ammo and expecting to be able to survive the apocalypse alone.
Shonkwiler gives an example of a right-wing guy with a rifle on his back, who falls down the stairs and breaks a leg. If he doesn’t have medical training and a community to help, “he’s going to die before he gets to enjoy all his freeze-dried food.”
“People are our greatest asset,” Killjoy said. When Hurricane Helene carved a path of destruction through Asheville, North Carolina in 2024, Killjoy, who used to live in the city, loaded her truck with food and generators and drove there to help.
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Inshirah Overton also subscribes to the idea of community. The attorney, who came to prepping after enduring Hurricane Irene in 2011, owns a half-acre plot of land in New Jersey where she grows food and has beehives.
She stores fruit, vegetables and honey but also gives them to friends and neighbors. “My plan is to create a community of people who have a vested interest in this garden,” she said.
At one point, Overton toyed with the idea of buying a “bug-out” property in Vermont, somewhere to escape to, but desire for community for her and her two daughters stopped her. In Vermont, “no one knows me and I’m just a random Black lady, and they’ll be like: ‘Oh, OK, right, sure. You live here? Sure. Here’s the barrel of my shotgun. Turn around.’”
This focus on community may stem in part from left-wing preppers’ growing fears around the climate crisis, predicted to usher in far-reaching ecological, social and economic breakdown. It cannot be escaped by retreating to a bunker for a few weeks.
As Trump guts weather agencies, pledges to unwind the Federal Emergency Management Administration and slashes climate funding — all while promising to unleash the fossil fuel industry — climate concerns are only coming into sharper focus.
They’re top of mind for Brekke Wagoner, the creator and host of the Sustainable Prepping YouTube channel, who lives in North Carolina with her four children. She fears increasingly deadly summer heat and the “once-in-a-lifetime” storms that keep coming. Climate change “is just undeniable,” she said.
Her prepping journey started during Trump’s first term. She was living in California and filled with fear that in the event of a big natural disaster, the federal government would simply not be there.
Her house now contains a week’s worth of water, long-term food supplies, flashlights, backup batteries and a solar generator. “My goal is for our family to have all of our needs cared for,” she said, so in an emergency, whatever help is available can go to others.
“You can have a preparedness plan that doesn’t involve a bunker and giving up on civilization,” she said.
These preppers have ‘go bags,’ guns and a fear of global disaster. They’re also left-wing
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The day after President Donald Trump was elected in 2016, Eric Shonkwiler looked at his hiking bag to figure out what supplies he had. “I began to look at that as a resource for escape, should that need to happen,” he said.
He didn’t have the terminology for it at the time, but this backpack was his “bug-out bag” — essential supplies for short-term survival. It marked the start of his journey into prepping. In his Ohio home, which he shares with his wife and a Pomeranian dog, Rosemary, he now has a six-month supply of food and water, a couple of firearms and a brood of chickens. “Resources to bridge the gap across a disaster,” he said.
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Margaret Killjoy’s entry point was a bleak warning in 2016 from a scientist friend, who told her climate change was pushing the global food system closer than ever to collapse. Killjoy started collecting food, water and generators. She bought a gun and learned how to use it. She started a prepping podcast, Live Like the World is Dying, and grew a community.
Prepping has long been dominated by those on the political right. The classic stereotype, albeit not always accurate, is of the lone wolf with a basement full of Spam, a wall full of guns, and a mind full of conspiracy theories.
Shonkwiler and Killjoy belong to a much smaller part of the subculture: They are left-wing preppers. This group is also preparing for a doom-filled future, and many also have guns, but they say their prepping emphasizes community and mutual aid over bunkers and isolationism.
In an era of barreling crises — from wars to climate change — some say prepping is becoming increasingly appealing to those on the left.
The roots of modern-day prepping in the United States go back to the 1950s, when fears of nuclear war reached a fever pitch.
The 1970s saw the emergence of the survivalist movement, which dwindled in the 1990s as it became increasingly associated with an extreme-right subculture steeped in racist ideology.
A third wave followed in the early 2000s, when the term “prepper” began to be adopted more widely, said Michael Mills, a social scientist at Anglia Ruskin University, who specializes in survivalism and doomsday prepping cultures. Numbers swelled following big disasters such as 9/11, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2008 financial crisis.
A watershed moment for right-wing preppers was the election of Barack Obama in 2008, Mills said. For those on the left, it was Trump’s 2016 election.
Preppers of all political stripes are usually motivated by a “foggy cloud of fear” rather than a belief in one specific doomsday scenario playing out, Mills said. Broad anxieties tend to swirl around the possibility of economic crises, pandemics, natural disasters, war and terrorism.
“We’ve hit every one of those” since the start of this century, said Anna Maria Bounds, a sociology professor at Queens College, who has written a book about New York’s prepper subculture. These events have solidified many preppers’ fears that, in times of crisis, the government would be “overwhelmed, under-prepared and unwilling to help,” she said.
‘Extraordinary rainstorm’ floods Nebraska city, triggers water rescues
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An entire June’s worth of rain fell in just a few hours over Grand Island, Nebraska, Wednesday night, triggering life-threatening flash flooding that inundated neighborhoods, stranded motorists and forced water rescues.
Crews have responded to dozens of calls to assist motorists stuck in flooded roads since torrential rain began Wednesday night, according to Spencer Schubert, the city’s communications manager. The flooding has also displaced an unspecified number of residents from their homes.
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“At this time we have no injuries to report,” Schubert said early Thursday morning, noting some rescues were ongoing.
Torrential rain caused sewers to back up into several homes and sent floodwater running into basements, according to a Thursday news release from the city. Some affected residents took shelter at local hotels or with friends and family.
“This was an extraordinary rainstorm and is very similar to the historic rains seen in the 2005 floods,” Jon Rosenlund, the city’s emergency director said. “We will be actively monitoring rivers, creeks and other drainage areas over the next few days for future flooding issues.”
Flooding in 2005 turned streets into rivers in Grand Island. At one point, the city tore up a major road to open up a channel to drain flooding away from homes, CNN affiliate KHGI reported.
The central Nebraskan city is home to around 53,000 people and is about 130 miles southwest of Omaha. The rain came to an end around sunrise Thursday, but the danger remains, with a flood warning in effect until 7 p.m. CDT.
The CO2 that is extracted from the water is run through a purification process that uses activated carbon in the form of charred coconut husks, and is then ready to be stored.
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In a scaled up system, it would be fed into geological CO2 storage. Before the water is released, its acidity is restored to normal levels, making it ready to absorb more carbon dioxide from the air.
“This discharged water that now has very low carbon concentrations needs to refill it, so it’s just trying to suck CO2 from anywhere, and it sucks it from the atmosphere,” says Halloran. “A simple analogy is that we’re squeezing out a sponge and putting it back.”
While more tests are needed to understand the full potential of the technology, Halloran admits that it doesn’t “blow direct air capture out the water in terms of the energy costs,” and there are other challenges such as having to remove impurities from the water before releasing it, as well as the potential impact on ecosystems. But, he adds, all carbon capture technologies incur high costs in building plants and infrastructure, and using seawater has one clear advantage: It has a much higher concentration of carbon than air does, “so you should be able to really reduce the capital costs involved in building the plants.”
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Mitigating impacts
One major concern with any system that captures carbon from seawater is the impact of the discharged water on marine ecosystems. Guy Hooper, a PhD researcher at the University of Exeter, who’s working on this issue at the SeaCURE site, says that low-carbon seawater is released in such small quantities that it is unlikely to have any effect on the marine environment, because it dilutes extremely quickly.
However, that doesn’t mean that SeaCURE is automatically safe. “To understand how a scaled-up version of SeaCURE might affect the marine environment, we have been conducting experiments to measure how marine organisms respond to low-carbon seawater,” he adds. “Initial results suggest that some marine organisms, such as plankton and mussels, may be affected when exposed to low-carbon seawater.”
To mitigate potential impacts, the seawater can be “pre-diluted” before releasing it into the marine environment, but Hooper warns that a SeaCURE system should not be deployed near any sensitive marine habitats.
There is rising interest in carbon capture from seawater — also known as Direct Ocean Capture or DOC — and several startups are operating in the field. Among them is Captura, a spin off from the California Institute of Technology that is working on a pilot project in Hawaii, and Amsterdam-based Brineworks, which says that its method is more cost-effective than air carbon capture.
According to Stuart Haszeldine, a professor of Carbon Capture and Storage at the University of Edinburgh, who’s not involved with SeaCURE, although the initiative appears to be more energy efficient than current air capture pilot tests, a full-scale system will require a supply of renewable energy and permanent storage of CO2 by compressing it to become a liquid and then injecting it into porous rocks deep underground.
He says the next challenge is for SeaCURE to scale up and “to operate for longer to prove it can capture millions of tons of CO2 each year.”
But he believes there is huge potential in recapturing carbon from ocean water. “Total carbon in seawater is about 50 times that in the atmosphere, and carbon can be resident in seawater for tens of thousands of years, causing acidification which damages the plankton and coral reef ecosystems. Removing carbon from the ocean is a giant task, but essential if the consequences of climate change are to be controlled,” he says.
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UK project trials carbon capture at sea to help tackle climate change
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The world is betting heavily on carbon capture — a term that refers to various techniques to stop carbon pollution from being released during industrial processes, or removing existing carbon from the atmosphere, to then lock it up permanently.
The practice is not free of controversy, with some arguing that carbon capture is expensive, unproven and can serve as a distraction from actually reducing carbon emissions. But it is a fast-growing reality: there are at least 628 carbon capture and storage projects in the pipeline around the world, with a 60% year-on-year increase, according to the latest report from the Global CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) Institute. The market size was just over $3.5 billion in 2024, but is projected to grow to $14.5 billion by 2032, according to Fortune Business Insights.
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Perhaps the most ambitious — and the most expensive — type of carbon capture involves removing carbon dioxide (CO2) directly from the air, although there are just a few such facilities currently in operation worldwide. Some scientists believe that a better option would be to capture carbon from seawater rather than air, because the ocean is the planet’s largest carbon sink, absorbing 25% of all carbon dioxide emissions.
In the UK, where the government in 2023 announced up to ?20 billion ($26.7 billion) in funding to support carbon capture, one such project has taken shape near the English Channel. Called SeaCURE, it aims to find out if sea carbon capture actually works, and if it can be competitive with its air counterpart.
“The reason why sea water holds so much carbon is that when you put CO2 into the water, 99% of it becomes other forms of dissolved carbon that don’t exchange with the atmosphere,” says Paul Halloran, a professor of Ocean and Climate Science at the University of Exeter, who leads the SeaCURE team.
“But it also means it’s very straightforward to take that carbon out of the water.”
Pilot plant
SeaCURE started building a pilot plant about a year ago, at the Weymouth Sea Life Centre on the southern coast of England. Operational for the past few months, it is designed to process 3,000 liters of seawater per minute and remove an estimated 100 tons of CO2 per year.
“We wanted to test the technology in the real environment with real sea water, to identify what problems you hit,” says Halloran, adding that working at a large public aquarium helps because it already has infrastructure to extract seawater and then discharge it back into the ocean.
The carbon that is naturally dissolved in the seawater can be easily converted to CO2 by slightly increasing the acidity of the water. To make it come out, the water is trickled over a large surface area with air blowing over it. “In that process, we can constrict over 90% of the carbon out of that water,” Halloran says.
Beirut, Lebanon
CNN
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A deadly Israeli airstrike on Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Beirut on Friday has left over a dozen people dead, including a high-ranking Hezbollah commander, sharply escalating the conflict between the two sides and raising fears of all-out war.
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Senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil, part of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, was assassinated along with “about 10” other commanders, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari said, accusing them of planning to raid and occupy communities in Galilee in northern Israel.
Hezbollah confirmed Aqil’s death on Friday, saying he was killed “following a treacherous Israeli assassination operation on 09/20/2024 in the southern suburbs of Beirut.”
According to Hagari, the targeted commanders were “underground underneath a residential building in the heart of the Dahiyeh neighborhood, using civilians as a human shield” at the time of the attack.
Lebanon’s health ministry said at least 14 people were killed and 66 others injured in the airstrike, which leveled a multistory building in a densely populated neighborhood.
Aqil had a $7 million bounty on his head from the United States for his suspected involvement in the 1983 strike on the US Embassy in Beirut, which killed 63 people, as well as the bombing of the Beirut Marine barracks, which killed 241 US personnel later that year.
A CNN team on the ground in Beirut saw a frantic effort to rescue people from underneath the rubble and rush the wounded to hospital. Witnesses said nearby buildings shook for nearly half an hour after the strike, which the IDF said it had carried out at around 4 p.m. local time.
A week of surprise attacks
Friday’s strike marked the fourth consecutive day of surprise attacks on Beirut and other sites across the country, even as Israeli forces continued deadly strikes and operations in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.
The first major attack against Hezbollah this week came Tuesday afternoon when pagers belonging to the militant groups’ members exploded near-simultaneously. The pagers had been used by Hezbollah to communicate after the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, encouraged members to switch to low-tech devices to prevent more of them from being assassinated.
Almost exactly 24 hours later, Lebanon was rocked by a second wave of explosions, after Hezbollah walkie-talkies detonated in Beirut and the south of the country on Wednesday.
At least 37 people were killed, including some children, and more than 3,000 were injured in the twin attacks.
In a United Nations Security Council meeting on Friday, UN human rights chief Volker Turk on Friday warned that the detonation of communication devices could violate international human rights law.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib and Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon clashed at the heated meeting, with Bou Habib calling on the council to condemn Israel’s actions and Danon slamming the Lebanese envoy for not mentioning Hezbollah.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington on Thursday. Leon Neal/Getty Images
CNN
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House on Thursday could be his final chance to convince a receptive American president of his country’s war aims.
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The precise details of the “victory plan” Zelensky plans to present in separate meetings to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are unknown, having been closely held until they are presented to the American leaders.
But according to people briefed on its broad contours, the plan reflects the Ukrainian leader’s urgent appeals for more immediate help countering Russia’s invasion. Zelensky is also poised to push for long-term security guarantees that could withstand changes in American leadership ahead of what is widely expected to be a close presidential election between Harris and former President Donald Trump.
The plan, people familiar with it said, acts as Zelensky’s response to growing war weariness even among his staunchest of western allies. It will make the case that Ukraine can still win — and does not need to cede Russian-seized territory for the fighting to end — if enough assistance is rushed in.
That includes again asking permission to fire Western provided long-range weapons deeper into Russian territory, a line Biden once was loathe to cross but which he’s recently appeared more open to as he has come under growing pressure to relent.
Even if Biden decides to allow the long-range fires, it’s unclear whether the change in policy would be announced publicly.
Biden is usually apt to take his time making decisions about providing Ukraine new capabilities. But with November’s election potentially portending a major change in American approach to the war if Trump were to win, Ukrainian officials — and many American ones — believe there is little time to waste.
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Trump has claimed he will be able to “settle” the war upon taking office and has suggested he’ll end US support for Kyiv’s war effort.
“Those cities are gone, they’re gone, and we continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky. There was no deal that he could have made that wouldn’t have been better than the situation you have right now. You have a country that has been obliterated, not possible to be rebuilt,” Trump said during a campaign speech in Mint Hill, North Carolina, on Wednesday.
Comments like those have lent new weight to Thursday’s Oval Office talks, according to American and European officials, who have described an imperative to surge assistance to Ukraine while Biden is still in office.
As part of Zelensky’s visit, the US is expected to announce a major new security package, thought it will likely delay the shipping of the equipment due to inventory shortages, CNN previously reported according to two US officials. On Wednesday, the US announced a package of $375 million.
The president previewed Zelensky’s visit to the White House a day beforehand, declaring on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly his administration was “determined to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevail in fight for survival.”
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“Tomorrow, I will announce a series of actions to accelerate support for Ukraine’s military – but we know Ukraine’s future victory is about more than what happens on the battlefield, it’s also about what Ukrainians do make the most of a free and independent future, which so many have sacrificed so much for,” he said.