美国总统对乌克兰的访问对俄罗斯领导人来说是一个沉重的打击。

作者: 艾略特·A·科恩 (Eliot A. Cohen)

美国东部时间 2023 年 2 月 20 日上午 10:29。

远程导弹很重要。 超精确炮弹、地对空导弹和冬季气象装备也是如此; 在英国乡村或泥泞的 Grafenwöhr 演习场进行的训练; 以及从太空中的眼睛和在战区外盘旋飞机上提供的情报。

但乔·拜登总统对基辅的访问与其中任何一项都一样重要。

其他政府首脑在拜登之前,赢得了应得的荣誉。 但当美国总统——实际上是自由世界的领袖——出现时,情况就完全不同了。 他的话很重要。 他承诺“我们将坚定不移地致力于乌克兰的民主、主权和领土完整。” 更重要的是,称美国将“在需要的时候”与乌克兰站在一起。

形象很重要:柏林墙前的肯尼迪或里根,抽着雪茄和圆顶礼帽的丘吉尔,而今,身着绿衣的泽伦斯基大声地说:“我需要弹药,而不是搭便车。” 仅仅通过危险的基辅之行,拜登就采取了一项至关重要的战略举措。

虽然总统显然打算增强乌克兰的信心,以及矛盾的欧洲人和新孤立主义美国人的承诺,但正如他对西方力量的评论所表明的那样,他真正的听众在别处。 俄罗斯散播了一系列关于在乌克兰取得胜利的理论——基辅的领导人会逃跑,乌克兰人民不会战斗,它的军队会被突然的闪电战或猛烈的攻击击垮。 它已沦为最后的希望:弗拉基米尔·普京的意志比乔·拜登的意志更强大。 拜登只是用行动和言语说,“哦,不,不是。”

但拜登的到访是对俄罗斯领导人的一击。 俄罗斯人收到了这次旅行的消息,我们被告知——可能是明示或暗示的威胁,如果他们试图干涉它,他们将得到暴力和压倒性的回应。 对于像普京这样痴迷于力量的领导人来说,这是一个打击。 他自己的人会悄悄或公开地问:“为什么我们不能阻止这一切?” 未明说的答案必须是,“因为我们害怕。”

一位戴着标志性飞行员太阳镜走在阳光明媚的基辅市中心的美国总统与好斗而雄辩的乌克兰总统以及一位尚未访问战区的俄罗斯总统之间的视觉对比也很引人注目。 更不用说与其他人打成一片、握手、拥抱和拍背的美国总统与与下属保持身体距离的俄罗斯总统之间的区别。 克里姆林宫的好战言论不会改变这些视觉图像,这些图像将在俄罗斯和世界各地看到。

这不是噱头,而是政治家的行为。 拜登的访问正值许多事情悬而未决之际。 按照美国政府的说法,中国人已经开始叫嚣要武装俄罗斯,这将是这场战争的一个非常大的变化。 包括亚洲民主国家在内的西方盟友已经开始动员他们的军事工业。 俄罗斯的攻势本应在入侵周年纪念日期间取得巨大收益,但结果却让顿巴斯铺满了数千名士兵的尸体,他们太晚才知道,正如一位第一次世界大战的法国将军所说的那样,“火灾致死”。 与此同时,乌克兰正在建立自己的反攻力量。

俄乌战争不仅是一场人道主义灾难,是危害人类罪的骇人听闻的集合,是对庄严协议和国际法的严重违反。 它也是一个分水岭,国际体系的未来将在很大程度上决定于此。 如果独裁者如愿以偿,它可能会导致一个非常黑暗的时代,与 1930 年代和 40 年代的黑暗无异。 但如果自由民主国家团结起来,展现出他们之前表现出的决心、进取心和军事能力,这种结果仍然可以避免。

为此,没有什么比美国的领导地位、恢复过去几十年被浪费或分散的声望和影响力更重要的了。 我们离这场战争的结束还差得很远,需要做很多有形的事情才能使冲突接近尾声。 言语和手势是关键的,但只有在伴随着行动的情况下。 但就目前而言,通过迈出大胆的一步,拜登总统已经让乌克兰、欧洲和法律下的自由事业的未来更加光明。

艾略特·科恩 (Eliot Cohen) 是《大西洋月刊》的特约撰稿人。 他是约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院的Robert E. Osgood 教授和战略与国际研究中心的Arleigh Burke 战略主席。

顾震帝整理,2023年,2月,21号。

11,445 thoughts on “国际视角(六)《拜登刚刚摧毁了普京最后的希望》 ”
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  3. How it works: you fill in the whole amount of the resource account and the Coinmize system divides it into small amounts and distributes them to different wallets, mixing them with the coins of other clients or with bitcoins taken on a foreign cryptocurrency exchange, you also get them in small portions to your wallet already washed. This process increases the anonymity of your coins. Features of the service: The main difference between this server is that it has 2 different mixing modes. Cleaning is carried out automatically.In one of the modes, pure BTC is received through foreign cryptocurrency exchanges. Guarantees with PGP signatures are used. Low and high minimum and maximum entry thresholds from 0.001 BTC to 50 BTC. The mixing procedure takes up to 6 hours. Note that there are services that offer to wait 1-2 days. Registration on this platform is not required. Cleaning is carried out automatically. Data encryption is practiced. At the time of writing, Coinmize is one of the best BTC mixing services out there. We definitely recommend it. Yomix : Excellent customer support Bitcoin Mixer : It offers flexible transaction fees and a low minimum transaction limit Bitcoin Laundry : Uses stealth pools to anonymize transactions Coin Mixer : Fast payouts Coinmize : Zero-log policy 1. Yomix – Excellent customer support This is by far the most unique Yomix I’ve ever encountered till date; that’s so pertaining to its “Time-travel” feature! (Whoa!) Basically instead of operating on the traditional receive unclean coins > send clean coins process, it instead uses a create wallet > fund it with chips beforehand > receive unclean coins > grant access to the pre-funded wallet process! This lets users spend the clean coins even before the unclean coins were sent to the mixer (because the wallet was pre-funded) and that’s the reason I termed it the time-travel mixer. 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A user does not just deposit coins to mix, but creates a wallet and funds it with chips from 0.01 BTC to 8.192 BTC which a user can break down according to their wishes. After chips are included in the wallet, a wallet holder can deposit coins to process. As the chips are sent to the mixing service beforehand, next transactions are nowhere to be found and there is no opportunity to connect them with the wallet owner. There is no usual fee for transactions on this mixing service: it uses “Pay what you like” feature. It means that the fee is randomized making transactions even more incognito and the service itself more affordable. Retention period is 7 days and every user has a chance to manually clear all logs prior to this period. Pros: Provides user-controlled time delays It has a positive reputation among the Bitcoin community 2. Bitcoin Mixer – It offers flexible transaction fees and a low minimum transaction limitBitcoin Mixer is one of those mixing services that keep your crypto safe. The platform will take your bitcoin, mix it with other deposits, and give you the same amount of bitcoin in return. It’s designed to reduce bitcoin tracking, “clean” your coins, and help ensure anonymity on the transparent bitcoin network. A bitcoin mixer service like BitMix.Biz will take your bitcoin, then give you different bitcoin in return. The platform collects everyone’s bitcoin deposits, mixes them up into one central account, and then returns the bitcoins to users. You get the same amount of bitcoin (minus a fee), but different bitcoin from different parts of the blockchain. With BitMix.Biz, you get a letter of guarantee. That letter of guarantee is proof of BitMix.Biz’s obligations. 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You can mix user’s coins: with incoming coins of other customers, private reserves of the service and investor coins. The service does not require registration. The mixing commission is not large and is taken from the mining commission, which is very convenient. The referral program at SmartMixer is one of the most profitable, during the first mixing operation you receive a smart code that is required to receive a discount on the commission, this discount can reach – 70%. After each transaction, the user receives a letter of guarantee. All data about it is deleted after a day, while maintaining the complete anonymity of the client.This is by far the most unique Bitcoin Mixer I’ve ever encountered till date; that’s so pertaining to its “Time-travel” feature! (Whoa!) Basically instead of operating on the traditional receive unclean coins > send clean coins process, it instead uses a create wallet > fund it with chips beforehand > receive unclean coins > grant access to the pre-funded wallet process! This lets users spend the clean coins even before the unclean coins were sent to the mixer (because the wallet was pre-funded) and that’s the reason I termed it the time-travel mixer. Also it funds the wallets with “chips” which are not the same thing as Bitcoins, they’re basically the private keys which can be exported to your Bitcoin wallets to fund your wallets with the amount the chips were worth. It also lets users bet their Chips which has a chance of doubling the worth of their chips, other advanced features include merging which lets users combine two big chips into one single chip, or splitting which divides one big chip into two smaller chips. Its fee structure too is an unique- “Pay what you like” feature, which not only adds to user anonymity by randomizing the fee but also makes the service more affordable and customizable. Because users completely control when or how much funds they wish to withdraw, it translates into 100% user control on time-delays and distribution control. No logs are kept after a 7-day retention period; or there also is an option to manually scrub all logs whenever you wish prior to this 7-day period. The minimum deposit limit on the platform is 0.0001BTC.Bitcoin Mixer is a Bitcoin mixing service that provides privacy by using the ‘Bitcoin Mixer 2.0’ algorithm to shuffle bitcoins. Unlike other similar tumbling services that mix your coins with the coins of other users, this platform mixes your crypto with the crypto bought by them directly from the cryptocurrency stock exchanges. Bitcoin Mixer verifies the newly purchased coins with a scoring system with the help of innovative algorithms and outfoxes such technologies as blockchain volume analysis, cluster analysis, taint analysis, etc. It means that you will receive your BTC back split into random parts, and even at the different addresses if needed. Consequently, your privacy is protected as there is no connection to you. And it takes up to 6 hours to complete your request. Another privacy feature of this mixer service is that it does not require registration and it does not store logs. All the transactions are digitally signed with letters of guarantee that you can check on the website at any moment. They also provide 24/7 technical support. MixTum.io will charge you a 5% Fee from your transaction as well as a network fee of 0.00015 BTC. The platform provides two versions – for Clearnet and Tor browsers. Pros: Excellent customer support Excellent customer support 3. Bitcoin Laundry – Uses stealth pools to anonymize transactions As well as others, Bitcoin Laundry has both a clear-web CryptoMixer. This mixing service is notable for accommodating extremely large-volume transactions. After public verification of their reserve of 2000 BTC there is no doubt that users can trust this mixing service and their cryprocurrencies will not be taken. The number of needed confirmations differs depending on the deposited amount, e.g. for depositing less that 25 BTC there is only 1 confirmation needed, in case of sending more than 1000 BTC a user needs to gather 5 confirmations. To use this platform, a Bitcoin Laundry code needs to be created. A user should note it, so it is easy to use it next time. After entering a CryptoMixer code, users need to provide the output address or several of them and then set a time-delay feature. A delay time is determined automatically and a user can modify it if needed. A service fee can be also selected from the table depending on the sent sum. Each transaction requires additional fee of 0.0005 BTC. Also, a calculator on the main page helps every user to see the amount of crypto money sent and got back after mixing.How it works: unlike other mixers, this site cleans coins with bitcoins purchased by them on cryptocurrency exchanges. Bitcoin Laundry io examines purchased coins using a scoring system with innovative algorithms and the use of technologies such as blockchain volume analysis, cluster analysis, pollution analysis, etc. After that, you will receive your BTC back, divided into random parts, and even sent in different addresses, if necessary. The whole process takes about 6 hours. The mixer does not require registration and does not store any logs. After each mixing operation, a letter of guarantee is sent, and information about it is eliminated after 24 hours, ensuring complete anonymity. The service also provides round-the-clock technical support. MixTum io charges a flat fee of 5% of the transaction, as well as a network fee of 0.00015 BTC. The program has two versions – for regular browsers and Tor.Bitcoin Laundry provides all the anonymity and protection that comes standard with a Bitcoin mixer, as well as many optional features and benefits that you won’t find anywhere else. If you use a new address for withdrawal, the coins you receive back are completely separated from your previous history on the blockchain, so it is almost impossible to link the transaction history with your personality. SmartMix commission is only 0.5% of the deposit amount plus 0.0001 BTC / 0.00005 BCH for each exit address. 5 output addresses can be set. The privacy policy makes it possible to delete all mixing information as soon as it is completed. The resource provides fast and reliable mixing of bitcoins through a simple and attractive user interface. Bitcoin Laundry has made two additional functions for its clients in contrast to its colleagues: 1. Affiliate program. Share your anonymous referral link and earn cryptocurrency bonuses. For each mixing operation performed on your link, you receive 50% of the service fee. 2. Loyalty reward program. Use your anonymous SmartClub code with every mixing operation to receive service charge discounts. The more you mix, the more you save.Grams itself is a brand on the Darknet so I believe not much needs to be said about it. Grams Helix is one of its subsidiaries and is one of the most reputed and widely used Bitcoin Laundry services out there, it’s simple, modern, and definitely trustworthy. Grams supports only Bitcoins for now. It needs 2 confirmations before it cleans and sends you your coins. It obviously supports time-delay, but it’s automatically set to “2 hours” for some reasons. It also supports “Random transactions” for the deposit, the deposit address changes after each transaction and allows you to send more than 1 transactions to Grams Helix instead of sending in all your coins in a single go. The same is also supported for the “output addresses” (where you receive coins) and you can input as many as 5 different BTC addresses where your coins are sent after cleaning them. The coin-deposit address is valid for 8 hours, and any transaction not done within these 8 hours won’t be received by the platform. Pros: Uses stealth pools to anonymize transactions Offers a low minimum deposit of 0.002 BTC 4. Coin Mixer – Fast payouts Coin Mixer is being listed at the #1 spot here, well that’s not without substance. The top reasons why I’m in love with this Bitcoin tumbler is because it’s fast, takes care of our anonymity and privacy, and has a very negligible fee. Smartmix bitcoin mixing service The payout is almost instant, all it needs is 2 confirmations for the dirty coins being sent in to be cleaned or tumbled. No account needs to be created to clean your coins either. They have advanced options which let you set “delayed payouts” which further increase your anonymity and make it hard to link the coins going inside to the coins coming out. There’s even an option to add up to 5 addresses, so your coins are broken down into 5 different parts and sent to the different addresses again adding another layer of anonymity. The minimum amount too is pretty low being just 0.001BTC while the maximum limit is 15.32BTC. It’s pocket-friendly as well, with the fee being just 0.5% per mix + 0.0001BTC/address, in fact, it probably is one of the lowest fee in the industry altogether. As for anonymity, they delete all logs related to your mix after 7 days which finally erases the last thread which could ever be linked back to you. So yes, enough reasons to list it at the #1 spot, don’t you agree?How it works: unlike other mixers, this site cleans coins with bitcoins purchased by them on cryptocurrency exchanges. Coin Mixer io examines purchased coins using a scoring system with innovative algorithms and the use of technologies such as blockchain volume analysis, cluster analysis, pollution analysis, etc. After that, you will receive your BTC back, divided into random parts, and even sent in different addresses, if necessary. The whole process takes about 6 hours. The mixer does not require registration and does not store any logs. After each mixing operation, a letter of guarantee is sent, and information about it is eliminated after 24 hours, ensuring complete anonymity. The service also provides round-the-clock technical support. MixTum io charges a flat fee of 5% of the transaction, as well as a network fee of 0.00015 BTC. The program has two versions – for regular browsers and Tor.Coin Mixer supports Bitcoin cryptocurrency bearing no logs policy. It requires a minimum deposit of 0.001 BTC and the transaction fee is 0.5–3%. It supports multiple addresses of up to 10 and requires confirmation. No registration is required and it does offer a referral program. Letter of guarantee is provided.It is a simple service with a high level of anonymity. The Coin Mixer mixing process is very simple and only takes a couple of minutes. You need to select one of the three supported cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash), enter the withdrawal address, set the transaction delay for any time up to 72 hours, send the coins to the specified address and wait for their delivery to the destination. This site is unlike the other three mixing pools. You can mix user’s coins: with incoming coins of other customers, private reserves of the service and investor coins. The service does not require registration. The mixing commission is not large and is taken from the mining commission, which is very convenient. The referral program at SmartMixer is one of the most profitable, during the first mixing operation you receive a smart code that is required to receive a discount on the commission, this discount can reach – 70%. After each transaction, the user receives a letter of guarantee. All data about it is deleted after a day, while maintaining the complete anonymity of the client. Pros: It has a positive reputation among the Bitcoin communitySecure Exchange 5. Coinmize – Zero-log policy Coinmize is a Bitcoin cleaner, tumbler, shifter, mixer and a lot more. It has a completely different working principal than most other mixers on this list. So, it has two different reserves of coins, one for Bitcoin and the other for Monero. It cleans coins by converting them to the other Cryptocurrency. So, you can either clean your Bitcoins and receive Monero in return, or vice-versa. The interface is pretty straight-forward. You simply choose your input and output coins, and enter your output address. For now, only 1 output address is supported which we believe simplifies things. The fee is fixed which further makes it easier to use. You either pay 0.0002 BTC when converting BTC to XMR, or 0.03442 XMR when converting XMR to BTC. It also provides a secret key which can be used to check transaction status, or get in touch with support. The process doesn’t take long either, Coinmize only demands 1 confirmation before processing the mixes. Bitcoin amounts as low as 0003BTC and XMR as low as 0.05 can be mixed. It doesn’t require any registrations so obviously there’s no KYC. The company seems to hate the govt. and has a strict no-log policy as well.Coinmize runs on the Darknet and is one of the most popular Bitcoin toggle switches. This dark service uses new technology, it doesn’t just clean up your coins, you get brand new coins that have never been on the dark web. The cleaning process can take no more than 4 hours. To carry out cleaning on Helix in the basic version of Grams, you need to register, in the versions of Helix Light and Helix Market this is not necessary. If you still decide to use the Grams version, you will have to pay an entrance fee of 0.01 BTC. Helix has an additional feature (Auto-Helix) that allows you to specify which addresses your coins will be mixed with when they are credited to your account. Helix also enforces a “no log” policy, all logs are deleted automatically after 7 days or by the user immediately after completion of the output. Helix has a third party server not connected to Grams. A number of Bitcoin client programs that he uses are located on a completely separate server from Helix and Grams. Even if Grams is attacked or compromised, Helix will not be affected.Another coin scrambler Mixtum offers you a so-called free trial period what means that there are no service or transaction fee charged. The process of getting renewed coins is also quite unique, as the tumbler requires a request to be sent over Tor or Clearnet and renewed coins are acquired from stock exchanges.Coinmize offers a unique service with a high degree of confidentiality, which will ensure the anonymity of your payments, by using the mixing of multiple Bitcoin addresses. Our system works quickly, reliably and with a small commission – only after the transfer and receipt of funds to the final address. Of course, all of the data about your transaction will be irretrievably deleted. Pros: Doesn’t require registrationExtensive FAQ section

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