作者：Alton Frye
烏克蘭對俄羅斯战争取得令人印象深刻的軍事勝利的故事中缺少了一些東西。 這一成功的关键是一個名為和平夥伴關係 (PfP) 的計劃。
自 1990 年以來，烏克蘭一直是積極的參與者，這一經歷對於基輔利用北約不斷擴大的支持的能力來說是不可或缺的。
PfP 的概念根源於喬治 H.W. 布什，但在克林頓和喬治·W·布什政府期間，它成為一項嚴肅的任务。支持者認為它比正式擴大北約更可取，北約擴大是一個需要擴大條約第 5 條對每個成員國領土完整的保證的過程。
PfP 選項是那些反對北約擴大的人爭論的核心。 由丹尼爾·帕特里克·莫伊尼漢 (DN.Y.) 和約翰·華納 (R-Va.) 領導的兩黨參議員小組贊成與前蘇聯衛星國積極開展安全合作，但認為讓他們成為正式聯盟成員既沒有必要也不明智。 許多其他領導人懷疑北約早期擴張是否明智，認為俄羅斯潛在的複仇主義可以通過合作而不是將聯盟的邊界延伸到莫斯科來阻止。
在重要的方面，對俄羅斯侵略的反應證明了北約擴張的支持者和反對者都是正確的。 烏克蘭與北約的密切關係早在 1991 年就開始了，並在三年後基輔加入 PfP 時呈現出更多的官方關係。
這些不僅僅是名義上的聯繫； 他們促進了烏克蘭軍隊與北約幾個軍事機構之間的實地工作安排。 幾十年來，這種關係通過各種憲章、理事會和委員會不斷發展，特別是 1997 年的獨特夥伴關係憲章。 北約-烏克蘭委員會 (NUC) 在 2009 年的附加協議的支持下監督了範圍廣泛的規劃、培訓、桌面演習以及最重要的行動合作。
20 多年來，北約聯絡處促進了烏克蘭能力的現代化及其與盟軍的互操作性。 這些努力通常是雙邊的，因此烏克蘭軍官和軍隊與鄰國建立了密切的關係。
烏克蘭協助北約在巴爾乾地區的維和行動，包括在科索沃部署重型工程部隊。 它參與了穩定阿富汗局勢的多國努力，提供了寶貴的飛越權，並派遣醫務人員和教官幫助該國苦苦掙扎的軍隊。 烏克蘭軍官是北約在伊拉克訓練任務的一部分，烏克蘭船隻多次部署以支持地中海的反恐和反海盜監視。
這種實際的 PfP 活動網絡意味著，當俄羅斯在 2022 年發動大規模入侵時，烏克蘭準備充分利用北約的支持。
烏克蘭在戰場上的成功在很大程度上也歸功於附近的北約成員國，尤其是波蘭和波羅的海國家，他们準備支持基輔。 他們和其他聯盟夥伴吸收了戰爭造成的大量難民潮，並一直強烈主張向烏克蘭提供更好的武器。
北約東擴改變了鄰里關係。 基輔在加入該聯盟的北約政府中找到了熱心支持者，作為該進程的一部分。 當然，這些國家對俄羅斯侵略的危險最為敏感。 即使他們不是北約成員，他們的興趣也在於支持烏克蘭和阻止俄羅斯未來的侵略前景。 然而，他們的成員身份極大地增強了他們在塑造聯盟戰爭態勢方面的影響力。
如果不注意俄羅斯自身與北約的關係，這種背景將是不完整的。 蘇聯的解體從根本上改變了歐洲的安全格局，因此必須設計一種新的穩定結構。 北約被證明是基石，但它真誠地尋求將俄羅斯包括在內。 1997 年，北約俄羅斯成立法案為兩國關係制定了一套建設性原則，俄羅斯也很快加入了 PfP。
在一個充滿希望的時期，當時的總統德米特里梅德韋傑夫被問及俄羅斯是否真的可能成為北約成員。 他說還沒有提出要約，但“永遠不要說永遠不會。” 俄羅斯強烈反對美國轟炸塞爾維亞，但也有重要的合作，莫斯科為對阿富汗的國際干預運輸非軍事貨物就突顯了這一點。
可悲的是，那些良性聯繫動搖了。 莫斯科認為北約在中歐的安排是敵對的，而不是防禦性的。 俄羅斯被弗拉基米爾·普京的恐懼和野心所俘虜，使自己成為了它本不需要成為的棄兒。
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Aerodrome Finance: Innovations and Opportunities
In today’s evolving landscape, the development of aerodrome infrastructure and related financial tools is becoming increasingly significant. This article explores key aspects of aerodrome finance, along with emerging trends in decentralized finance (DeFi), such as aerodrome swap, aerodrome exchange, and aerodrome DEX.
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What is Aerodrome Finance?
Aerodrome finance refers to the integration of traditional aerodrome operations with modern financial technologies, enabling optimized management of assets, investments, and operations at aerodrome bases. This concept involves creating specialized aerodrome bases that serve as platforms for financial transactions and investment activities.
Aerodrome Base
An aerodrome base is a foundational platform that combines aerodrome infrastructure with financial instruments. It provides transparency, security, and efficiency in asset management and acts as a core for implementing innovative financial solutions.
Aerodrome Swap
An aerodrome swap is a financial instrument allowing participants to exchange assets or liabilities related to aerodrome infrastructure. Such swaps help manage risks associated with fluctuations in asset values or currency exchange rates.
Aerodrome Exchange
An aerodrome exchange is a marketplace for trading assets linked to aerodromes, including tokens representing infrastructure or other financial instruments. It ensures liquidity and market access for investors and operators.
Aerodrome DeFi Solutions
Aerodrome DeFi involves applying decentralized finance protocols within the aerodrome sector. This includes establishing aerodrome finance bases where users can obtain loans, participate in liquidity pools, and earn yields by providing liquidity.
Aerodrome DEX
An aerodrome DEX is a decentralized exchange that facilitates token swaps without intermediaries. This aerodrome DEX promotes local market development and enhances access to financial services for industry participants.
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There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.
It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”
Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.
Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.
The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.
All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.
For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.
It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.
The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.
The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.
Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.
The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
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