美国总统对乌克兰的访问对俄罗斯领导人来说是一个沉重的打击。
作者： 艾略特·A·科恩 (Eliot A. Cohen)
美国东部时间 2023 年 2 月 20 日上午 10:29。
远程导弹很重要。 超精确炮弹、地对空导弹和冬季气象装备也是如此； 在英国乡村或泥泞的 Grafenwöhr 演习场进行的训练； 以及从太空中的眼睛和在战区外盘旋飞机上提供的情报。
但乔·拜登总统对基辅的访问与其中任何一项都一样重要。
其他政府首脑在拜登之前，赢得了应得的荣誉。 但当美国总统——实际上是自由世界的领袖——出现时，情况就完全不同了。 他的话很重要。 他承诺“我们将坚定不移地致力于乌克兰的民主、主权和领土完整。” 更重要的是，称美国将“在需要的时候”与乌克兰站在一起。
形象很重要：柏林墙前的肯尼迪或里根，抽着雪茄和圆顶礼帽的丘吉尔，而今，身着绿衣的泽伦斯基大声地说：“我需要弹药，而不是搭便车。” 仅仅通过危险的基辅之行，拜登就采取了一项至关重要的战略举措。
虽然总统显然打算增强乌克兰的信心，以及矛盾的欧洲人和新孤立主义美国人的承诺，但正如他对西方力量的评论所表明的那样，他真正的听众在别处。 俄罗斯散播了一系列关于在乌克兰取得胜利的理论——基辅的领导人会逃跑，乌克兰人民不会战斗，它的军队会被突然的闪电战或猛烈的攻击击垮。 它已沦为最后的希望：弗拉基米尔·普京的意志比乔·拜登的意志更强大。 拜登只是用行动和言语说，“哦，不，不是。”
但拜登的到访是对俄罗斯领导人的一击。 俄罗斯人收到了这次旅行的消息，我们被告知——可能是明示或暗示的威胁，如果他们试图干涉它，他们将得到暴力和压倒性的回应。 对于像普京这样痴迷于力量的领导人来说，这是一个打击。 他自己的人会悄悄或公开地问：“为什么我们不能阻止这一切？” 未明说的答案必须是，“因为我们害怕。”
一位戴着标志性飞行员太阳镜走在阳光明媚的基辅市中心的美国总统与好斗而雄辩的乌克兰总统以及一位尚未访问战区的俄罗斯总统之间的视觉对比也很引人注目。 更不用说与其他人打成一片、握手、拥抱和拍背的美国总统与与下属保持身体距离的俄罗斯总统之间的区别。 克里姆林宫的好战言论不会改变这些视觉图像，这些图像将在俄罗斯和世界各地看到。
这不是噱头，而是政治家的行为。 拜登的访问正值许多事情悬而未决之际。 按照美国政府的说法，中国人已经开始叫嚣要武装俄罗斯，这将是这场战争的一个非常大的变化。 包括亚洲民主国家在内的西方盟友已经开始动员他们的军事工业。 俄罗斯的攻势本应在入侵周年纪念日期间取得巨大收益，但结果却让顿巴斯铺满了数千名士兵的尸体，他们太晚才知道，正如一位第一次世界大战的法国将军所说的那样，“火灾致死”。 与此同时，乌克兰正在建立自己的反攻力量。
俄乌战争不仅是一场人道主义灾难，是危害人类罪的骇人听闻的集合，是对庄严协议和国际法的严重违反。 它也是一个分水岭，国际体系的未来将在很大程度上决定于此。 如果独裁者如愿以偿，它可能会导致一个非常黑暗的时代，与 1930 年代和 40 年代的黑暗无异。 但如果自由民主国家团结起来，展现出他们之前表现出的决心、进取心和军事能力，这种结果仍然可以避免。
为此，没有什么比美国的领导地位、恢复过去几十年被浪费或分散的声望和影响力更重要的了。 我们离这场战争的结束还差得很远，需要做很多有形的事情才能使冲突接近尾声。 言语和手势是关键的，但只有在伴随着行动的情况下。 但就目前而言，通过迈出大胆的一步，拜登总统已经让乌克兰、欧洲和法律下的自由事业的未来更加光明。
艾略特·科恩 (Eliot Cohen) 是《大西洋月刊》的特约撰稿人。 他是约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院的Robert E. Osgood 教授和战略与国际研究中心的Arleigh Burke 战略主席。
顾震帝整理，2023年，2月，21号。
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