作者:Alton Frye
烏克蘭對俄羅斯战争取得令人印象深刻的軍事勝利的故事中缺少了一些東西。 這一成功的关键是一個名為和平夥伴關係 (PfP) 的計劃。
自 1990 年以來,烏克蘭一直是積極的參與者,這一經歷對於基輔利用北約不斷擴大的支持的能力來說是不可或缺的。
PfP 的概念根源於喬治 H.W. 布什,但在克林頓和喬治·W·布什政府期間,它成為一項嚴肅的任务。支持者認為它比正式擴大北約更可取,北約擴大是一個需要擴大條約第 5 條對每個成員國領土完整的保證的過程。
PfP 選項是那些反對北約擴大的人爭論的核心。 由丹尼爾·帕特里克·莫伊尼漢 (DN.Y.) 和約翰·華納 (R-Va.) 領導的兩黨參議員小組贊成與前蘇聯衛星國積極開展安全合作,但認為讓他們成為正式聯盟成員既沒有必要也不明智。 許多其他領導人懷疑北約早期擴張是否明智,認為俄羅斯潛在的複仇主義可以通過合作而不是將聯盟的邊界延伸到莫斯科來阻止。
在重要的方面,對俄羅斯侵略的反應證明了北約擴張的支持者和反對者都是正確的。 烏克蘭與北約的密切關係早在 1991 年就開始了,並在三年後基輔加入 PfP 時呈現出更多的官方關係。
這些不僅僅是名義上的聯繫; 他們促進了烏克蘭軍隊與北約幾個軍事機構之間的實地工作安排。 幾十年來,這種關係通過各種憲章、理事會和委員會不斷發展,特別是 1997 年的獨特夥伴關係憲章。 北約-烏克蘭委員會 (NUC) 在 2009 年的附加協議的支持下監督了範圍廣泛的規劃、培訓、桌面演習以及最重要的行動合作。
20 多年來,北約聯絡處促進了烏克蘭能力的現代化及其與盟軍的互操作性。 這些努力通常是雙邊的,因此烏克蘭軍官和軍隊與鄰國建立了密切的關係。
烏克蘭協助北約在巴爾乾地區的維和行動,包括在科索沃部署重型工程部隊。 它參與了穩定阿富汗局勢的多國努力,提供了寶貴的飛越權,並派遣醫務人員和教官幫助該國苦苦掙扎的軍隊。 烏克蘭軍官是北約在伊拉克訓練任務的一部分,烏克蘭船隻多次部署以支持地中海的反恐和反海盜監視。
這種實際的 PfP 活動網絡意味著,當俄羅斯在 2022 年發動大規模入侵時,烏克蘭準備充分利用北約的支持。
烏克蘭在戰場上的成功在很大程度上也歸功於附近的北約成員國,尤其是波蘭和波羅的海國家,他们準備支持基輔。 他們和其他聯盟夥伴吸收了戰爭造成的大量難民潮,並一直強烈主張向烏克蘭提供更好的武器。
北約東擴改變了鄰里關係。 基輔在加入該聯盟的北約政府中找到了熱心支持者,作為該進程的一部分。 當然,這些國家對俄羅斯侵略的危險最為敏感。 即使他們不是北約成員,他們的興趣也在於支持烏克蘭和阻止俄羅斯未來的侵略前景。 然而,他們的成員身份極大地增強了他們在塑造聯盟戰爭態勢方面的影響力。
如果不注意俄羅斯自身與北約的關係,這種背景將是不完整的。 蘇聯的解體從根本上改變了歐洲的安全格局,因此必須設計一種新的穩定結構。 北約被證明是基石,但它真誠地尋求將俄羅斯包括在內。 1997 年,北約俄羅斯成立法案為兩國關係制定了一套建設性原則,俄羅斯也很快加入了 PfP。
在一個充滿希望的時期,當時的總統德米特里梅德韋傑夫被問及俄羅斯是否真的可能成為北約成員。 他說還沒有提出要約,但“永遠不要說永遠不會。” 俄羅斯強烈反對美國轟炸塞爾維亞,但也有重要的合作,莫斯科為對阿富汗的國際干預運輸非軍事貨物就突顯了這一點。
可悲的是,那些良性聯繫動搖了。 莫斯科認為北約在中歐的安排是敵對的,而不是防禦性的。 俄羅斯被弗拉基米爾·普京的恐懼和野心所俘虜,使自己成為了它本不需要成為的棄兒。
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By Henry Austin
A Russian-American woman who was imprisoned for treason by Russia has been freed, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday.
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Former ballerina Ksenia Karelina was born in Russia but had built a new life as an aesthetician at a Los Angeles spa after immigrating to the United States over a decade ago. She “is on a plane back home to the United States,” having been “wrongfully detained by Russia for over a year,” Rubio said on in a post on X. He credited President Donald Trump with securing her release.
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Karolina’s lawyer, Mikhail Mushailov, confirmed her release in a statement on Instagram. “Two hours ago she was in touch with her relatives and took off from Abu Dhabi to the U.S.,” he wrote, adding that he had known about her release since Tuesday.
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Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) detained Karelina in January 2024 while she was visiting her parents and young sister in the city Yekaterinburg. It did not provide further details or evidence of her alleged crime.
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At the time, Russian legal group Perviy Otdel said it had information that Karelina had donated just over $51.80 from her U.S. bank account on Feb. 24, 2022 — the day that Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine — to a charity that sends aid to Ukraine. A spa where she had previously worked confirmed this in a statement on Facebook.
Although Russia’s FSB did not confirm that figure, it said Karelina’s donation “was subsequently used to purchase tactical medical supplies, equipment, weapons, and ammunition for the Ukrainian armed forces.”
She was sentenced in August to 12 years in a penal colony for “high treason,” having “fully admitted her guilt” at a closed trial in the southwestern Russian city of Yekaterinberg, Sverdlovsky Region Court said in a news release at the time.
The sentence came against the backdrop of Russia’s 3-year-long war with Ukraine during which President Vladimir Putin’s government has cracked down on dissent. Any perceived criticism of the military is banned.
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How Trump changed his mind on tariffs
+2
Peter Nicholas, Garrett Haake and Carol E. Lee
Reporting from Washington
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“Liberation Day” gave way to Capitulation Day last night.
President Donald Trump pulled back yesterday on a series of harsh tariffs targeting friends and foes alike in an audacious bid to remake the global economic order.
Image: President Donald Trump
Saul Loeb / AFP – Getty Images
Trump’s early afternoon announcement followed a harrowing week in which Republican lawmakers and confidants privately warned him that the tariffs could wreck the economy. His own aides had quietly raised alarms about the financial markets before he suspended a tariff regime that he had unveiled with a flourish just one week earlier in a Rose Garden ceremony.
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The stock market rose immediately after the about-face, ending days of losses that have forced older Americans who’ve been sinking their savings into 401(k)s to rethink their retirement plans.
Read the full story here.
32m ago / 12:55 PM GMT+3
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China’s foreign ministry calls the U.S. a ’21st century barbarian’
Peter Guo
Reporting from Hong Kong
China’s public language on its trade war with the U.S. has become increasingly bellicose and took a new turn today when Beijing’s foreign ministry said the Trump administration’s tariffs have made the U.S. a “barbarian of the 21st century.”
Trump’s tariffs will “never America great again” ministry of foreign affairs spokesperson Huang Jingrui, wrote in an open letter today in Hong Kong’s newspaper South China Morning Post.
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“A tariff-wielding barbarian who attempts to force countries to call and beg for mercy can never expect that call from China,” Huang said, adding that the U.S. is “obsessed with the art of bullying and blackmailing the entire world.”
47m ago / 12:40 PM GMT+3
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EU welcomes 90-day tariff pause
Peter Guo
The EU President Ursula von der Leyen said today that the region welcomes Trump’s announcement to pause tariffs for 90 days.
Von der Leyen said the EU remains “committed to constructive negotiations” with the U.S., according to a statement from her office.
Meanwhile, Europe continues to focus on diversifying their trade partnerships, engaging with countries that account for 87% of global trade, she said.
Trump’s tariffs have shown that the European internal market is the region’s “anchor of stability and resilience” in times of uncertainty, von der Leyen added.
1h ago / 12:27 PM GMT+3
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Trade war with China ‘to spark a wave of smuggling’
Peter Guo
Reporting from Hong Kong
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Irregular trade including smuggling will most likely rise amid the U.S.’ and China’s tit-for-tat tariffs, an economist warns.
The cost of tariffs has become “prohibitive to almost every company,” Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit.
“As a result, trade flows in both directions will tumble, and irregular trade will proliferate, including smuggling, transshipment and systemic under-reporting of trade value during customs clearance,” Xu said in a note.
Xu said trade negotiations and a partial de-escalation in the ongoing trade war may ensue in the coming months, but those tensions are likely to worsen in the short term between the world’s two largest economies.
1h ago / 12:09 PM GMT+3
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California plant business owner says costs will double with tariffs
Gadi Schwartz and Phil Helsel
The owner of a California home decor and plant shop said that even in dealing locally, the sourcing of goods from China is impossible to avoid.
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